Takedown Report

College wrestling upsets are thrilling, fun for fans, and maybe meaningless in March

This college wrestling season brought a series of wild early upsets against former national champions. 

Yianni Diakomihalis, Shane Griffith, Mekhi Lewis, Aaron Brooks and Max Dean all took losses. These results seemed shocking, but how unprecedented is it really for a champ lose during the regular season? And what impact, if any, do those losses have on an athlete’s potential to win another title? I examined the stats for the last five years to find out. 

Here is the TL/DR version:

• Staying undefeated in the regular season after winning a title is rare
• A loss in the regular season doesn’t mean a wrestler won’t win a national title
• Three current former champs have a chance to maintain an undefeated record 

Here’s how I did it: First, I created a list of every national champion who won a title in 2017-2022 and then came back to wrestle at least one more season. If that wrestler took a regular-season loss at any point in their career following their national title, the athlete was added to the tracker. Injury defaults counted as losses, but medical forfeits did not count. The athlete’s weight class in the tracker represents the weight at which that athlete won his title and/or the weight class in which that athlete took his post-title regular season loss. The regular-season losses that occurred this season (2022-2023) are bolded.

Since 2017, five defending champs who lost in the regular season came back to win a title that same year: Jason Nolf (2018), Vincenzo Joseph (2018), Kyle Synder (2018), Spencer Lee (2019) and Zahid Valencia (2019). Excluding current athletes and 2020 athletes, only one former champ (Dean Heil) did not win another title after taking a regular-season loss following his first championship. The track record of athletes finding their rhythm and regaining their status on the top of the podium is strong. 

Now, the data … rest of the story at NCAA.com/article/2023-01-18/college-wrestling-upsets-thrilling-fun-fans-and-maybe-meaningless-march

January 25, 2023 - Posted by The TakeDown Report | Uncategorized